Barclays improved the growth outlook for the Mexican economy in 2021 to 4.5% from a previous 3% . The recovery in confidence is driven by the arrival of a vaccine, said Marco Oviedo, chief economist for Barclays .
Today in the United Kingdom the first person was vaccinated and Mexico’s position is good for having guaranteed 180 million doses. The new estimate for next year is conservative, and much will depend on the recovery of sectors sensitive to the pandemic .
In the case of manufacturing, if it grows moderately in 2021, around 13.4%, it would contribute one more point to the national GDP. “If we see that this (vaccination) strategy is a little more effective and fast, the economy could grow up to 5 or 6%,” said Oviedo, a boost that could come from consumption.
The financial institution maintains its estimate of GDP contraction for this year of 8.8%.
Role of the 4T
Raúl Martínez-Ostos Jaye, general director of Barclays México, highlighted the prudence of the federal government in the management of public finances and respect for the autonomy of Banco de México.
But the main challenge will be to overcome the global environment of uncertainty for investments that the pandemic has generated.
The unknown about investment has also been due to the private sector’s distrust of the government , added Oviedo. The federal government must mitigate the risks that Petróleos Mexicanos represents, either through lower taxes or by capitalizing the company , according to the financial institution.
“I am of the idea that although in the past Pemex contributed significantly to income, and at this time it is in a situation that the debt it has can generate additional risks, they should be mitigated with some measure,” Oviedo explained .
Countries that had expansionary fiscal policies did not necessarily have the best economic recovery , Barclays noted.
Oviedo said that the countries that opted for expansionary fiscal policies in Latin America, such as Brazil and Peru, did not have conclusive results for different reasons, including political ones. Revalidating the idea that excesses are not the most convenient in the middle of the crisis.